Weather modeling

Researchers from MIT have discovered that integrating “Texas’ self-contained electrical grid with the broader national grid could prevent mass power outages,” reports Zack Budryk for The Hill. The researchers “modeled the effects of a bill introduced by Reps. Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) that would connect the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to the rest of the country,” explains Budryk. “They determined that if such a law had been enacted ahead of the 2021 event, Winter Storm Uri, up to 80 percent of the millions of blackouts caused by the storm could have been averted.”

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with Living on Earth host Jenni Doering about the future of extreme weather forecasting. “We have to do a much better job projecting long term risk, and how that's changing as the climate changes so that people can make intelligent decisions about where they're going to live, what they're going to build, and so on,” says Emanuel. “We need better models, we need better computers, so that we can resolve the atmosphere better, we need to make better measurements of the ocean below the surface, that's really tough to do.”

Writing for Fast Company, Visiting Scientist Priya Donti examines how “scientists are increasingly looking to AI to help us predict the weather, and some of the most promising approaches come from blending AI with existing scientific knowledge.” Donti notes that a “combination of innovative technology and human wisdom is the best way to harness AI to help us tackle the challenges of the future, especially climate change.”

Researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that flooding events will become much more common by the end of the century, especially in New England, reports Evan Bush for NBC. “The researchers used computer modeling to stimulate thousands of ‘synthetic’ hurricanes toward the end of this century and in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are very high,” writes Bush.

Popular Science reporter Kendra Pierre-Louis writes about Prof. Kerry Emanuel’s research showing that climate change could make it harder to predict the intensity of hurricanes. “Storm intensity matters, because a weak storm might just mean staying home for the day, while a strong storm may require evacuation,” Pierre-Louis explains. 

Brian Sullivan writes for Bloomberg about research affiliate Judah Cohen’s “Siberian Snow Theory,” which is based on the concept that the amount of snow covering the ground in northern Eurasia can be used to predict how cold winter will be in the northern hemisphere. Sullivan writes that Cohen “spies all the makings of an early, cold winter,” this year.   

Prof. Paul O’Gorman spoke at Columbia University regarding a study he conducted on how climate change might impact extreme snowfall, reports Andrea Thompson for Scientific American.  O'Gorman found that while average annual snow amounts and extreme snowfalls would decline as temperatures rose, “extreme snowfalls would become a bigger proportion of all snow events.”

Research affiliate Judah Cohen speaks with Boston Herald reporter Erin Smith about his predictions for how much snow Boston might see this winter. “I think there will be a snowier second half of winter. That’s still very plausible,” says Cohen. “But matching anything like last year it would be difficult — near impossible.”

In an interview with Elisabeth Gawthrop of The Daily Beast, Prof. Kerry Emanuel weighs in on why tracking hurricanes is more difficult than predicting land-based weather. Emanuel explains that hurricanes and low-pressure systems over land “have completely different physics.” 

AP reporter Seth Borenstein writes that Prof. Kerry Emanuel conducted an analysis of past hurricane trends and found that a number of U.S. metro regions may be overdue for large storms. ‘‘It’s just the laws of statistics,’’ explains Emanuel. ‘‘Luck will run out. It’s just a question of when.’’

Boston Globe reporter Bella English writes about Dr. Judah Cohen, a research affiliate at MIT and director of seasonal forecasting for Atmospheric and Environmental Research, who accurately predicted this winter’s record-breaking snowfall. Cohen’s seasonal forecasts have been right “75 percent of the time, a rate that tops those of the major government weather centers.”

Dr. Judah Cohen examines whether climate change could be leading to more extreme snowfall in a piece for The Washington Post. “The influence of climate change may be that the warming brings the atmosphere closer to the 'optimal' profile to generate heavy snowfalls, more so in the present than in the past,” Cohen writes. 

Professor Paul O’Gorman speaks with Boston Globe reporter Carolyn Johnson about his recent research showing that despite climate change, massive snowstorms could still occur. “In some regions, fairly cold regions, you could have a decrease in the average snowfall in a year, but actually an intensification of the snowfall extremes,” explains O’Gorman. 

In an article for Scientific American about a blizzard hitting the East Coast of the Unites States, Andrea Thompson cites an MIT study that found that while overall snowfall may decrease due to climate change, extreme snowstorms will still occur. 

Writing for Scientific American, Tim Radford reports on Professor Paul O’Gorman’s new study, which shows that despite climate change blizzards will still occur. Radford writes that O’Gorman’s research shows that while some areas may receive less overall snowfall, extreme snowfall could become more intense.